Dow down 173 points, down $26,000! U.S. secretary of state: a U.S. -china agreement is expected before the election
On Tuesday, U.S. secretary of state Pompey told about 40 businessmen and economists at a private lunch in New York that they believe the u.s.-china trade war will end before the 2020 election. The audience of 40 included blackstone CEO Steve schwarzman and the founder of Gristedes John Catsimatidis, a supermarket.
The dow closed down 173 points at 25,962 Tuesday, another 26,000 points lower. As a result, the dow Jones actually consolidated about 26,000 in 2018-19. For trump, his re-election in 2020 will require the U.S. stock market and a strong economy. Secretary Pompey's informal speech revealed a lot.
After the dow Jones industrial average closed at 26,000, the Shanghai composite fell below 2,900. The s&p 500 also fell to 2,900.
From October 1, 2019 to October 1, 2020, the U.S. fiscal deficit will reach $1.103 trillion in the 2020 fiscal year. In other words, the U.S. plans to increase its debt by $1.103 trillion starting October 1.
In fiscal 2019, the deficit is $1.09 trillion. That equates to about $2.2 trillion in debt over two years.
In this way, the national debt could reach $23.5 trillion before the November 2020 election.
At the moment, the 10-year Treasury yield is 1.576%, or less than $400bn a year, depending on where that rate is (markets won't disappoint if the fed keeps lowering rates to that level).
As a result, the 10-year yuan yield is 3.0317%, twice the yield on U.S. bonds, according to China's central bank.
The yuan is trading at 7.0559 against the dollar, the dollar index is at 98.22, and the euro is stable at 1.1. In fact, the euro has depreciated against the dollar and the renminbi against the dollar about twice. Ten-year German government bonds yield -0.676%, while renminbi bonds yield 3.7% more than German bonds.
The world's three major currencies: the dollar, the euro and the renminbi.
As long as the M2 is growing at an annual rate in line with the dollar, it is about 5 per cent. The looming $23.5 trillion in debt will put pressure on the fed to cut rates, and if the dollar falls below the yuan rate, the yuan could return to 6.95.
For the least risky treasuries, renminbi bonds will yield more than dollar bonds. This is much higher than us government bonds. That would entice oil producers such as Saudi Arabia to shift their us debt positions into Chinese ones.
In essence, China's U.S. exports are dollar-denominated debt. As far as U.S. interests are concerned, the key is to buy more American goods and maintain the trade balance. Power negotiations between no one is right or wrong, the key is who is struggling with the card.
A shares have held at 3,000 in 10 years. Since 2018, the dow has actually consolidated to 26,000. Us stocks have been bought back and cancelled from public companies, with trillions of dollars bought back last year, but this year the amount is likely to be similar. Stock: hungry dead pig, fake 88.7 billion shark fined 600,000, scallop escape, 200,000 shareholders up tonight, promise extra money, fake white horse thunder. Even with the bad news, the Shanghai index is still close to 3, 000.
If the company were an American listed company, cancelling $100m of buy-backs a year, the Shanghai index would have recorded an estimated 8,000 points.
The U.S. economy relies heavily on consumption, which has benefited from high employment and wages. Now a major regulatory strengthening, ST delisting continues, market confidence is gradually increasing. Domestic demand will also strengthen.
The consumer potential of the Chinese market will make it easier to reach a us-china agreement. The logic goes like this: if only America wants it badly, it will. Only when we sell more American goods does America want to reach its goals faster. Only when I need to develop my market can I consume more American products. The gold content of the contract was very low when domestic demand surged and consumption fell, and now Mr Trump can strike a deal to lift the us stock market and re-elect it before the election.
The americans didn't find India with 1.3 billion people and start a trade war. India is heavily protected, but their market is not worth it.
After indians have money, the domestic market will develop and the us will negotiate contracts with them.
Faced with 1.3 billion pitiful ghosts, americans are too lazy to talk to either side of the Himalayas. It's not because the Japanese have money.