BNP paribas could raise the default rate to 50 per cent
BNP paribas on Friday raised the odds of not agreeing to leave the European Union from 40% to 50%, in a sign of the unstable political environment in the UK and the worrying calendar.
Britain is set to leave the European Union on October 31, but the continuing march of brexit is now having a major impact on the British economy, which experienced an unexpected recession in the second quarter, the first since 2012.
A report by the research and analysis group, led by Paul Hollingsworth, explains that "because parliament is suspended, most discussions are one-sided. MPS cannot actively prevent disorderly outcomes and lack control. A reasonable balance. "
The move comes after British prime minister lyndon Johnson wrote to all government departments of national officials, telling them that preparing for pending British retirement in advance is their basic task and theirs, sky news reported Friday.
According to sky's political correspondent Kate McCann, the letter read: "I really want to get an agreement to leave the eu, but I agree that it may or may not happen. This is why the basic task will not come and the consensus is to be fully prepared for the possibility of leaving the eu, which is the basic task of the national civil service. "
As Global Forex detailed last week, the idea of parity between sterling and the dollar appears to have become impossible as the risk of a strong UK exit increases. Rupert Harrison, who runs the blackrock fund, is bearish on sterling and expects the analysis to fall to parity against the dollar in the event of brexit. His views are at odds with Morgan Stanley's recent forecasts.
Mike Riddell, global portfolio manager at Allianz, thinks options prices and the pound weighting of exchange rates suggest the market has not fully taken the risk of a difficult exit. This, he explains, worries him about the outlook for the pound. Sterling/dollar six-month implied volatility is still close to its 2018 average. Today's sterling/dollar trading strategy: time period: H1 analysis index: five-line fundamental analysis: today no technical analysis important basic data: from the indicators, the current K line broke through the previous support level, and then continue to downward trend, operators should pay attention to the price range of 1,19850 below the support level. The high probability of the K line will oscillate between the two support positions shown in the figure, focusing on the empty instruction after the callback. Personal Suggestions are for reference only, focusing on risk control.