Almost 3 billion visits, all like in 2008, the so-called economic cycle cannot escape
Recently, the author found a good book called "the inevitable business cycle", an important study of the business cycle, which has many useful implications.
Each time, before the turning point of the cycle, we will use the phrase "we are different" to discover what makes us special. Over time, nothing can be simply repeated but in the same rhyme. Our method is whether these rhymes are the same, that is, whether the major economic data are the same.
Over the past six months, the authors have found one thing that is very consistent with 2008. In the first half of this year, our local bond issuance reached $2.8 billion, compared with $1.4 billion in the same period last year, a 100% increase. In 2008, we launched a $4 billion stimulus package and local bond issuance reached new heights that look very similar.
The difference, of course, is that 2008 was launched in the wake of the global financial crisis, but now it is more about avoiding financial risk. But it is true that so much money will inevitably have a big impact on the real economy or house prices.
House prices have almost doubled in a year since 2008. So this time, will house prices retaliate? The answer seems to have emerged.